Kamfanin Dillancin Labaran ƙasa da ƙasa na Ahlul-Baiti (AS) – ABNA - ya habarta cewa: Yaƙin Amurka da Isra’ilaa kan Iran ya ƙara kama da bala'in da Amurka ta fuskanta a Vietnam. Wannan magana ta fito ne daga bakin manazarcin siyasar Amurka Gideon Rose, wanda ya yi imanin cewa kamanceceniyar rikice-rikicen biyu ba a yanayin ƙasa ko akida ba ce, a'a tana cikin tsarin dabarun yaƙe-yaƙe da yadda shugabannin Amurka suke yi a lokacin da suke fuskantar matsin lamba.
Kamar yadda Al Jazeera ta ruwaito, Gideon Rose ya rubuta a cikin wata makala a mujallar Foreign Affairs cewa, a cikin watanni biyu kacal, gwamnatin Donald Trump ta bi matakai biyar iri ɗaya waɗanda gwamnatin Lyndon Johnson ta bi a Yaƙin Vietnam. Matakan sun haɗa da shiga tsakani, ƙara tsananta rikici, kaiwa ga tsaka mai wuya a fagen yaƙi, a ƙarshe komawa ga tattaunawa.
A cewar wannan manazarcin Amurka, Washington yanzu ta shiga wani mataki mai kama da zamanin shugabancin Richard Nixon. Matakin da Amurka ke neman hanyar ficewa cikin mutunci daga yaƙi mai tsada wanda ya kasa cimma manyan manufofinsa na siyasa.
Maimaita yanayin Vietnam
Marubucin, yana nazarin gogewar gwamnatin Johnson a shekarun 1960, ya bayyana cewa a wancan lokacin Amurka ta faɗaɗa iyakokin mamayarta saboda fargabar faduwar Kudancin Vietnam da babban birninsa Saigon a hannun sojojin kwaminisanci na Arewacin Vietnam.
Duk da shakku sosai game da yuwuwar nasara, Washington ta yi imanin cewa ƙara matsin lamba na soja zai iya tilasta wa Arewacin Vietnam ja da baya.
Saboda wannan dalili, Amurka ta fara da ƙara taimakon soja da masu ba da shawara, sannan ta koma tayar da bama-bamai masu yawa, daga ƙarshe ta tura ɗimbin sojoji na ƙasa zuwa yankin. Amma Arewacin Vietnam, duk da ƙarfin sojan Amurka da take da shi, ya ƙi jada baya daga manufofinsa.
Ya zuwa shekarar 1968, Yaƙin Vietnam ya zama babban rikici ga Amurka. Rikicin bai haifar da asarar tattalin arziki mai yawa ga Amurka ba kawai, har ma ya kawo zanga-zanga mai yawa a cikin gida da kuma asarar rayuka da ke ƙaruwa a ƙasar. Waɗannan yanayin tsaka mai yuwa sun tilasta wa gwamnatin Johnson neman mafita kuma ta damka tafiyar da rikicin ga Richard Nixon.
Iran; sabon salo na Vietnam?
Rose ya yi imanin cewa yaƙin da ake yi a kan Iran a yanzu yana tafiya ne a tafarki ɗaya dana Vietnam.
A cewarsa, bayan hare-haren Amurka da Isra’ila kan shirin nukiliyar Iran a shekarar 2025, Washington ta damu cewa Tehran za ta sake gina ƙarfinta na soja da shirinta na nukiliya.
A cikin wannan tsari, Trump ya amince da shirin Isra’ila na kai wani hari mai ƙarfi da nufin hambarar da gwamnatin Iran gaba ɗaya.
A watan Fabrairun 2026, Amurka da Isra’ila sun ƙaddamar da wani hari tare wanda ya yi sanadin kashe wasu manyan jami'an Iran da kwamandoji, ciki har da Babban jagora Ayatullah Sayyid Ali Khamenei.
Amma marubucin ya jaddada cewa wannan dabarar ta gaza cimma babbar manufarta. Domin tsarin mulkin Iran wanda Ayatullah Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei ke jagoranta ya ci gaba da aiki, kuma Tehran ta tsananta matsalar makamashi ta duniya ta hanyar hana zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa a Tekun Farisa da kuma iyakance wucewa ta mashigar Hormuz.
"Nazariyyar Mahaukacin Mutum" Da Matsin Lamba Kan Iran
Rose ya ce daga baya Trump ya nisanta daga tsarin ƙara tsanantawa na Johnson, ya koma kan manufar matsin lamba da tsoratarwa wadda aka sani da "Nazariyyar Mahaukacin Mutum" a zamanin Nixon.
A lokacin Yaƙin Vietnam, Nixon da sakataren gwamnatinsa Henry Kissinger sun yi ƙoƙarin tsoratar da Arewacin Vietnam ta hanyar barazanar soji da ƙara matsin lamba don tilasta su mika wuya. Amma wannan manufar ta gaza saboda shugabannin Arewacin Vietnam sun yi imanin cewa za su iya gajiyar da Amurka ta fuskar siyasa da tunani.
A cewar Rose, Iran a yau tana bin wannan hanyar ne. Ta yadda barazanar Amurka ko tattaunawar kaikaice da Pakistan ta shiga tsakani ba su yi nasarar tilasta wa Tehran yin rangwame ko sassauci kan manufarsu mai mahimmanci ba.
Ya ce Iran ta dogara ne a kan tsawaita yaƙi da kuma raunana ƙudurin Washington sannu a hankali.
Ƙarshen Yaƙi; Yarjejeniya Mai Kama Da Ta Paris?
Wannan manazarcin Amurka ya yi hasashen cewa a ƙarshe yaƙin zai ƙare da yarjejeniya mai kama da yarjejeniyar Paris ta shekarar 1973, wadda ta kawo ƙarshen harin soji kai tsaye na Amurka a Vietnam.
A cewarsa, irin wannan yarjejeniya za ta iya kawo ƙarshen fada da kuma sake buɗe hanyoyin kasuwancin teku, amma za ta bar manyan batutuwa kamar makomar shirin nukiliyar Iran da makomar tsarin siyasarta anan gaba.
Rose ya ƙarasa da cewa, gogewar Iran ta sake bayyana wani tsari mai maimaitawa a manufofin harkokin wajen Amurka: tunanin cewa ƙarfin soja zai iya haifar da manyan canje-canje na siyasa cikin sauƙi, yayin da waɗannan yaƙe-yaƙe sukan rikiɗa zuwa rikice-rikice masu tsawo da gajiyarwa waɗanda a ƙarshe sukan ƙare da tattaunawa da ficewa, ba tare da cimma manufofin farko na yaƙin ba.
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